BTC Bull Market Outlook: Analyzing the Impact of the $9.25B Bitcoin Options Expiry

Key Takeaways

Topic	Details
Bitcoin Options Expiry	$9.25 billion worth of BTC options expiring on June 28, 2024.
Impact of NVidia's Decline	NVidia's 12% dip increases market uncertainty.
Economic Context	Weak macroeconomic data may prompt aggressive rate cuts and monetary stimulus.
Price Scenarios	Four potential price scenarios impacting call and put options.

As the excitement tied to the Bitcoin halving event fades, a more substantial focus this month shifts to the tremendous Bitcoin options expiry, estimated to be $9.25 billion in value. Insight into this significant financial event can potentially offer an informed perspective on the future trajectory of the ongoing Bitcoin bull market.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

Bitcoin's options are set to experience one of their most significant expiries ever as $9.25 billion worth of BTC options will expire on June 28, 2024. This event, also an indicator of the end of the first half of 2024, draws extra attention as it signals a prominent milestone in financial markets, including traditional finance.

Tech giant NVidia's recent dip, a 12% decline from its June 20th high, has further raised investor concerns. These concerns have been amplified given the fact that the Bitcoin halving event, which occurred two months ago, led to an inflated 57% of Bitcoin bullish bets placed at $70,000 or higher. However, the reality is that the market displayed a weakening trend in the past couple of weeks, rendering these call options virtually valueless.

Moreover, if Bitcoin holds steady near the $61,500 mark at 8:00 am UTC on June 28, options to purchase BTC at $62,000 and $64,000 won't be partakers in this immense expiry. The same fate applies to the put (sell) options at $58,000 and $60,000.

Economic Context

The current weak macroeconomic data favor the Bitcoin bulls, anticipating the probability of aggressive rate cuts and monetary stimulus campaigns initiated by the Federal Reserve and Department of Treasury. The imbalance between the call options and the put options suggests that, should the Bitcoin price stay below $65,000 at 8:00 am UTC on June 28, only $440 million worth of these call options will take part in the expiry.

Potential Scenarios

Four potential scenarios could transpire based on the present price trends:

• $57,000 - $60,000: The put options will have an advantage of $820 million.
• $60,000 - $62,000: The net result leans towards the put options by $430 million.
• $62,000 - $64,000: The net result favors the put options by $215 million.
• $64,000 - $66,000: The outcome will be approximately balanced between call and put options.

Considering these possibilities, Bitcoin bulls must maintain the $60,000 support ahead of the significant June 28 expiry to prevent a hypothetical $820 million scenario in favor of the put options.

Conclusion

The forthcoming colossal $9.25 billion Bitcoin options expiry presents potential for notable market reactions. The preventive measures or tactics that the Bitcoin bulls employ to maintain the significant $60,000 support will play a decisive role, steering them away from a possible $820 million setback favoring the put options after the June 28 expiry.

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